Showing 1 ideas for tag "black-swan"
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Theme: Process

Why Estimates make me frown :( OR Estimates anchor benefits

It’s weakness to want predictions, to be at mercy of fortune tellers.

Anchor’s operate unintentionally and work even when people are forewarned. Estimates anchor and concentrate benefits near the estimate value. In this Pecha Kecha talk I present reasons why the best-benefit outcome is concentrated near the estimated value, irrespective of whether the work gets done sooner or later than estimated value.... more »