It’s weakness to want predictions, to be at mercy of fortune tellers.
Anchor’s operate unintentionally and work even when people are forewarned. Estimates anchor and concentrate benefits near the estimate value. In this Pecha Kecha talk I present reasons why the best-benefit outcome is concentrated near the estimated value, irrespective of whether the work gets done sooner or later than estimated value.
I have presented this talk as a Pecha Kecha at Scrum Gathering Phoenix 2015. Here are the slides from my session.
Learn that estimates have anchoring effect on benefits.
Estimating eliminates benefit options that are otherwise available.
Estimating guarantees inverted U shaped benefit outcomes.